CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-09-05T21:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17677/-1
CME Note: The observed CME starts to faintly emerge from the SE quadrant of SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2021-09-05T21:36Z, after which a halo feature becomes visible towards the south starting around 2021-09-05T23:36Z. May be associated with the combined eruptions from AR2865 at 2021-09-05T17:54Z (associated with a B7.9 flare) and from AR2864 at 2021-09-05T18:48Z (associated with a B7.0 flare). (CME activity ID: 2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001). CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A slight compression in magnetic field is detected starting at 2021-09-10T01:32Z and is subsequently followed by ICME features (notable increases in B-field values and large-scale B-field rotations).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-10T01:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-10T03:30Z (-24.0h, +24.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center Sent: Tuesday, September 7, 2021 11:25 AM To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert. expected arrival time: 2021-09-10T03:30:00 time_uncertainty: 24 min_estimated_peak_K: 3 max_estimated_peak_K: 4 probability_of_arrival: 15 --- :Issued: 2021 Sep 14 1627 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A CME was detectable in SOHO/LASCO C2 images during the night of Sept 5th/early morning of Sept 6th. It is associated with a plage (or possibly an active region) that currently rotates into Earth's view. Although there is a small chance that this CME will become geo-effective, it is unlikely that its arrival will be seen in the solar wind parameters. This is because a much brighter partial halo CME erupted a few hours earlier with a similar velocity and the two CMEs will most probably merge together. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 58.12 hour(s)
Difference: -1.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-09-07T15:25Z
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